Continuity & Replacement: What can we learn from New Zealand?

Oppenheimer assumes the 'mantle of a genetic detective' in his book 'The Origins of the British'. Adjusting his deerstalker hat and his meerchaum pipe, he tries to reconcile his findings about the relatively low contribution of Anglo-Saxon male-line ydna in England with the rapid supplanting of the original Celtic languages by English.

He deduces the prior existence of a Germanic language in southern England in the Pre-Roman period and claims that this laid the foundations for the wider language shift.

However, he is not able to present any tangible evidence whatsoever to support his hypothesis.

Oppenheimer's Continuity Hypothesis is not shared by all and there is something of a mother and father of a row between experts about the issue - with respect to both the language and the ydna evidence.

The alternative Replacement view is given below.

'WHO KILLED THE MEN OF ENGLAND?'

Jonathan Shaw explains, writing on the intersection of written history, genomics, evolution, demography, and molecular archaeology:

"There are no signs of a massacre—no mass graves, no piles of bones. Yet more than a million men vanished without a trace. They left no descendants.

Historians know that something dramatic happened in England just as the Roman empire was collapsing. When the Anglo-Saxons first arrived in that northern outpost in the fourth century a.d.—whether as immigrants or invaders is debated—they encountered an existing Romano-Celtic population estimated at between 2 million and 3.7 million people. Latin and Celtic were the dominant languages.

Yet the ensuing cultural transformation was so complete, says Goelet professor of medieval history Michael McCormick, that by the eighth century, English civilization considered itself completely Anglo-Saxon, spoke only Anglo-Saxon, and thought that everyone had “come over on the Mayflower, as it were.”

This extraordinary change has had ramifications down to the present, and is why so many people speak English rather than Latin or Celtic today. But how English culture was completely remade, the historical record does not say.

Then, in 2002, scientists found a genetic signature in the DNA of living British men that hinted at an untold story of Anglo-Saxon conquest. The researchers were sampling Y-chromosomes, the sex chromosome passed down only in males, from men living in market towns named in the Domesday Book of 1086.

Working along an east-west transect through central England and Wales, the scientists discovered that the mix of Y-chromosomes characteristic of men in the English towns was very different from that of men in the Welsh towns: Wales was the primary Celtic holdout in Western Britannia during the ascendance of the Anglo-Saxons.

Using computer analysis, the researchers explored how such a pattern could have arisen and concluded that a massive replacement of the native fourth-century male Britons had taken place. Between 50 percent and 100 percent of indigenous English men today, the researchers estimated, are descended from Anglo-Saxons who arrived on England’s eastern coast 16 centuries ago.

'So what happened? Mass killing, or “population replacement,” is one possible explanation. Mass migration of Anglo-Saxons, so that they swamped the native gene pool, is another."

This theory of course is easy to reconcile with the triumph of English over the Brythonic language of England's Romano-British inhabitants.

In countering this line of argument, Oppenheimer feels it necessary to invent the pre-existence of settlements of Germanic-language speakers.

Well, I think that I can strengthen the case for ydna continuity while retaining consistency with the history that there was an initially thoroughgoing Anglo-Saxon invasion and little prior Germanic influence.

In this 'Mixed Model' the intruder language is eventually adopted by all while the proportion of ydna from initially dominant immigrants becomes overwhelmed by the resurgence of the native population.

Here I believe New Zealand's ongoing relative shifts in ydna and language can provide a possible template.

ANOTHER EXPLANATION

The Model

The population of the original inhabitants is 100,000 prior to contact and subjugation by a dominant settler group. The intrusion is preceded by a period of savage inter-tribal warfare and population decline. The newcomers are welcomed initially for their capacity to impose order and security.

Within 60 years, the population of the indigenous group has declined to about 40,000 as a result of social collapse, introduced diseases and warfare with the intruders. The indigenous group now represent 7.5% of the total population.

The dominant settler group talk of ‘smoothing the pillow of the dying race’. They sing sagas to celebrate the demise of their erstwhile enemies:

Newer nations yet press onward:
Their brave warriors' fight is over —
One by one they yield their place,
Peace-slain chieftains of their race.

But the indigenous race is hardy and resourceful. They learn the intruders’ language. They enlist in the intruders’ armies and distinguish themselves in warfare. There is significant and expanding inter-marriage between the two groups.

The population of the indigenous group gradually recovers.

150 years after the onslaught of colonisation, looking at children in the 0-14 years old age category, 374,000 live in households who who at least in part identify with the indigenous group (& more recent immigrants from the periphery who share the same cultural background), while 577,000 live in households that identify in part with the settler group. There is a huge overlap and the gap itself is closing.

Two hundred or so years on from the initial subjugation event, the population of the indigenous group has reached 1 million. However, all the inhabitants increasingly see themselves as a united and distinct entity. English is the dominant everyday language.

Well, that's the history of New Zealand since 1840. Could it also explain the history of England from 440?