My previous posting introduced the topic of the UK Post-War Baby Boom and the more recent resonating Birthquake.
Having introduced the topic, I suddenly realised that the discussion could go every which way – overpopulation, resource depletion, environmental degradation, world income inequality, the ageing of society, social demographics etc. etc.
All good stuff but not necessarily very entertaining – and liable to fall victim to moralization.
So, I’ll bring things back to Family History. Those of us who try to get a handle on the more personal ‘story’ element of history can hardly avoid straying into population studies.
For instance, it is clear that many English surnames (and many of us must have these lost surnames embedded in our ydna) died out in the 14th Century when the population fell by a third due to the Black Death.
And in the case of my own family, who had settled in the Lancashire city of Salford to run small businesses there prior to 1800, it is challenging to try to visualize the levels of social change that they experienced.
“In the early 18th century, contemporary maps show Salford as still largely rural, with the major road networks already in place. By 1750 the town started to change dramatically - possibly the most drastic transformation of any town in England, as factories (largely spinning, weaving, dyeing and bleaching) took over the fields, so that nowadays only their names survive to indicate where they were.
By 1800 the population of Salford had reached 7,000 and canals linked the city to the Bridgewater Canal from Worsley, and the Leeds and Liverpool canal. The River Irwell had also been made navigable all the way to Liverpool. In the 19th century, the effects of the industrial revolution on Salford were phenomenal.
Factories replaced homeworkers and the resident population, which was just 12,000 in 1812, increased by 1840 to 70,244, and by 1900 to 220,000. This rapid increase, probably the greatest in the whole of Britain, was reflected in the vast areas of poor quality housing that were built throughout the Victorian period when overcrowding created real social problems.”
So I’ll pause here to provide a background to the Baby Boom posting which links to my Family History theme:-
EARLY HISTORY OF THE UK POPULATION
'The records of the Domesday Book of 1086, which surveyed land and resources in England, suggest that England’s population was between 1.4 and 1.9 million.
It is believed that the population grew quickly in the 12th and 13th centuries and reached between four and six million by the end of the 13th century. However, the 14th century was a period where disease and the struggle to produce an adequate food supply prevented further population growth.
A sustained agricultural crisis from 1315 to 1322 leading to famine was later dwarfed by the plague epidemic of 1348 to 1350. Commonly known as the Black Death, the latter probably caused the death of over one-third of the English population and was followed by other major epidemics, which kept population growth low.
In 1377 King Edward III levied a poll tax on all people aged 14 or over in order to fund the Hundred Years War with France. The records from this tax collection were sufficiently robust to provide an estimate of the population of England in 1377. Depending on the proportion of the population assumed to be aged under, the total population is estimated to have been between 2.2 and 3.1 million, considerably lower than it had been at the start of the 14th century.
Between 1377 and 1750 the English population grew slowly and unsteadily, with faster growth in the 16th century than in the 15th or 17th centuries. Long periods of civil war during the 15th century (the Wars of the Roses) and the mid-17th century (the Civil War) disrupted food supplies. These periods of political instability were characterised by relatively high mortality, late marriage and low marriage rates keeping fertility relatively low.
In contrast, the 16th century was a period of political stability under the Tudors, hence there were fewer socio-economic barriers to population growth. By 1750 the English population is estimated to have been 5.74 million, probably similar to the level prior to the mortality crises of the 14th century.
Towards the end of the 18th century concerns were raised that the British population might be growing faster than the food supply. Thomas Malthus’s ‘Essay on the Principle of Population’, published in 1798, articulated these concerns. By the end of the 18th century, the British Government began to see the need for reliable data to confirm the number of people living in the country.
The impetus for data collection was reinforced by the ongoing wars between Britain and France: both countries made plans to carry out their first census at the start of the 19th century to ascertain their manpower and tax base.
The Census Act of 1800 paved the way for the first British census, which took place in March 1801 in England, Wales and Scotland. The 1801 Census showed that England’s population had grown to 8.3 million, while there were nearly 0.6 million people living in Wales and 1.6 million in Scotland, giving a total of 10.5 million people in Great Britain.
Since 1801, a census has been taken in Great Britain every 10 years, except in 1941 during the Second World War. In Ireland, the first census was taken in 1821, but the 1841 Census was the first where a complete enumeration of the population of Ireland was achieved. In 1841 the population of Ireland stood at nearly 8.2 million.
The Censuses show that the population of England more than doubled from 8.3 million in 1801 to 16.8 million in 1851, and that it had nearly doubled again by 1901, to 30.5 million. The pace of growth slowed a little in the 20th century, with the English population reaching 41.2 million in 1951 and 49.1 million in 2001. However, England’s population in 2001 was still nearly six times higher than the population 200 years earlier.
Census data show that the populations of Wales and Scotland also grew substantially during the 19th century (though not quite so fast as England’s population. The Welsh population grew from 0.6 million in 1801 to 2.0 million in 1901, while the number of people living in Scotland increased from 1.6 million to 4.5 million over the same period.
The 20th century has seen more fluctuation in these populations, with some periods of slight decline. Overall the Welsh population increased by 0.9 million between 1901 and 2001, an increase of 44 per cent. The Scottish population grew by 13 per cent (0.6 million) over the same period.
In contrast, census data for the area that is now Northern Ireland show a population falling from 1.6 million in 1841 to 1.2 million by 1901. During the 20th century the population of Northern Ireland started to increase slowly and by 2001 had reached nearly 1.7 million, only slightly higher than in 1841.
The population of what is now the Republic of Ireland also fell considerably, from 6.5 million in 1841 to 3.2 million at the start of the 20th century. However, unlike Northern Ireland’s population, which began to increase slowly, the population of the Republic continued to fall during the 20th century to a low of 2.8 million in 1961.
After 1961 it increased gradually, apart from a slight decline in the late 1980s, but, at 3.9 million in 2002, the population of the Irish Republic had still not recovered to anywhere near its size in 1841 (6.5 million).
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
The demographic transition model describes the stages a population goes through as it moves from a pre-industrial population with high fertility and mortality to a modern industrial country with low fertility and mortality.
In stage one (pre-transition) both birth and death rates are high so the population grows only slowly.
In stage two, social and economic changes, most notably improvements in the quality and quantity of the food supply, lead to a fall in death rates. This in turn causes rapid population growth.
By stage three, birth rates also start to fall and as a result population growth slows. Stage four represents the stable situation following the demographic transition, where both birth and death rates are low and the population size fairly constant. The model assumes that net migration is zero.
Census data are consistent with England’s population moving from stage one to stage four of the demographic transition model during the period from 1750 to 1950. In the mid-18th century, England’s population entered a period of sustained population growth, increasing rapidly from less than six million in 1750, to almost 17 million by 1851 and more than 41 million by the time of the 1951 Census.
The transition from low and intermittent population growth before 1750 to the period of high population growth after 1750 represents England entering stage two of the demographic transition.
In the late 18th and early 19th centuries, improvements in agricultural productivity, and therefore a more reliable food supply, enabled this growth in population. However, the lack of reliable data sources for the early part of the period makes it difficult to be certain about why this population growth occurred.
It is generally agreed that mortality was an important factor. As well as a general fall in death rates, of particular note was the fact that mortality crises such as those caused by plague or famine had mostly been eliminated, especially in Scotland and Ireland. An increasing birth rate may also have been an important factor contributing to population growth during this period, with increased agricultural productivity meaning that people could afford to marry earlier and begin having children at younger ages.
After 1850 adult mortality rates began to fall more dramatically (as would be expected in stage two of the demographic transition model). The possible reasons for the fall in death rates in the 19th century are disputed but may include improved nutrition, rising standards of living, such as improved sanitation, and the introduction of the smallpox vaccination.
Infant mortality in England remained high until 1900 but fell during the first half of the 20th century, probably due to improved public health and changing child-care practices.
The decline in birth rates, identified as stage three of the demographic transition, took place in England from around 1870 to 1920. In 1871 the average woman was having 5.5 children but by 1921 this had fallen to 2.4 children.
Whereas previously, delayed marriage and non-marriage were the only factors reducing the number of children borne by each woman, by the late 19th and early 20th centuries the use of traditional methods of birth control (abstinence and withdrawal) within marriage had become more widespread.
The third stage of the demographic transition was therefore achieved almost totally without modern contraceptive methods and with no support for family planning from the major social institutions.
By the 1930s an increased acceptance of birth control by medical and some religious institutions, plus the availability of modern methods such as condoms from around time of the First World War, enabled this decline in birth rates to continue.
England’s population would have grown even more rapidly during the demographic transition had it not been for increasingly large numbers of out-migrants leaving for countries including the United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
Although this was partly balanced by in-migration from other countries, there was net out-migration from England in every decade from 1840 to 1930.
During the first half of the 20th century, England was moving into stage four of the demographic transition, with low birth rates, decreasing death rates and slower population growth.
There were, however, some exceptions to these trends. For example, during the First World War, 723,000 British servicemen (mainly aged between 20 and 40) are estimated to have lost their lives. Following the First World War, an influenza pandemic caused 152,000 deaths in England and Wales between June 1918 and May 1919.
The English experience shows that the conventional demographic transition model is a useful starting point for explaining the change in a population. However, a major limitation is that it does not take account of migration.
According to the model, towards the end of stage four, birth rates will be equal to or lower than death rates, hence population growth will be very low. In practice, England’s population has continued to grow due to net international in-migration, and the population momentum built into the age structure'.
From: ‘The UK population: past, present and future’, by Julie Jefferies, Focus on People and Migration (2005)
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